Why it keeps happening
The SNP government's constant failures are about more than rotten luck.
This is the text of my Scottish Daily Mail column for Monday, May 23, 2022.
Every government needs its ballasts, the sturdy men and women of substance who help keep the whole enterprise afloat.
They may be ministers, such as Margaret Thatcher's deputy William Whitelaw, of whom she is reputed to have remarked: ‘Every prime minister needs a Willie.’ They may be mandarins, quietly and deftly attending to the affairs of state in the corridors of Whitehall. Edward Bridges, Winston Churchill’s wartime Cabinet Secretary, won the admiration of his prime minister for his effort and ability.
A government without ballasts might keep chugging along but it can never be stable. The Scottish Government may be such a vessel, for if anything is clear after 15 years of SNP government, it is the obvious dearth of capable ministers and skilled civil servants. There are a smattering, of course, but they represent a famine rather than a feast. A vast government infrastructure, powers coming out of its ears, and yet Holyrood appears manacled by inadequacy.
What is the source of the problem? Is it purely ministerial? Is it a failing of the civil service? Does the blame lie with a first minister whose political priorities are driven by fashion, identity and status rather than the dull business of policy-making and gradual changes to outcomes? The experience of ScotRail signals to us that something is going wrong somewhere. Barely two months into Nicola Sturgeon's nationalisation of the rail franchise, a dispute over drivers' pay has escalated, driven in part by a pre-existing driver shortage, and now ScotRail has taken the extraordinary step of axing a third of rail services across Scotland.
There could scarcely be a worse advertisement for public ownership. Except perhaps Ferguson Marine. Or Prestwick Airport. There are, it would seem, serious structural flaws in the government of Scotland. An overrepresentation in the ranks of ministers and the civil service of lifelong politicians, aides and researchers, public sector workers, lawyers, arts and social science graduates and local government paper-shakers. A paucity of men and women who have built a major business from the ground up, overseen a large-scale project in any sector of the economy, or taken responsibility for delivering infrastructure on which the economy depends. 'Lived experience' is a favourite buzzword of late but doesn't seem to apply when recruiting the stewards of government.
Given the growing rail crisis, we might look to the transport and infrastructure portfolios. Michael Matheson, Cabinet Secretary for Net Zero, Energy and Transport, was previously an occupational therapist. Transport Minister Jenny Gilruth was a modern studies teacher. The other ministers in this directorate, Mairi McAllan (Environment and Land Reform Minister) and Richard Lochhead (Just Transition, Employment and Fair Work Minister) were a special adviser and a council environmental officer, respectively. The First Minister herself can claim a couple of years as a solicitor. I list these occupations not to disparage them. Some are very worthwhile and, with the exception of solicitor, all have some socially redeeming value.
The point is that none of these roles involves devising, planning or implementing large-scale projects on which hundreds, if not thousands, of jobs rely. None requires the managing of infrastructure or boardroom-level familiarity with financial risk, external costs, supply chains or timely delivery to market. There is no rule that says ministers must have professional experience or qualifications in their area of responsibility. Aneurin Bevan, the Health Minister who delivered the NHS, had no formal schooling beyond the age of 13 and earned his living down the pits. A ministry is a commission, not a vocation.
Even when ministers lack a specialism or show no particular ability for running a government portfolio, there is always the civil service. The rub is that on the recent record in transport alone, the civil service is either not fielding its best players or unable to mitigate ministerial incompetence. The Scottish Government's travails with Prestwick Airport, ferries and now ScotRail cannot all be down to rotten luck. There is scarcely a form of transportation this government hasn't tried to run and with the same results every time. Either ministers or the bureaucracy are not up to the job, though I wouldn't discount the possibility that both are at fault.
The problem, I suspect, is structural. Neither the SNP nor the Scottish Government is managing to recruit the best of the best. There are reasons for this outwith the government's control. Political life is not for everyone and the size of the country means there is a shallow talent pool from which to recruit. Changes inside the SNP may have contributed to this. The party is no longer the great — and ungovernable — democratic beast it once was and the leader now dominates all key facets of the organisation. Anyone signing up for a career in SNP politics today must be a pre-programmed Sturgeonbot — or prepared for a life on the backbenches. This is a recipe for attracting toadies, not talent.
Nor can this Scottish Government rely on advice or support from the business sector, where it long ago burned whatever bridges it had. When you pursue a policy agenda that is aggressively hostile to wealth generation and the generators themselves, you can hardly be surprised that they would rather leave you to get on with it. What incentive is there for entrepreneurs with experience in major transport projects (or anything else) to work with Scottish ministers, whether to supply industrial or market advice or to invest in Scotland's transport infrastructure? What would they get out of it? Would they be likelier to emerge with their reputation enhanced or diminished? Tycoons don’t accrue their fortunes by being daft. They may start with the business pages but they read the front pages too.
Then there is the massive red flag to investment that is the constant threat of another independence referendum. Businesses want stability. A market of 67 million that could become a market of 5 million in the near future is not a terribly attractive investment. A government that keeps sabre-rattling over the constitution, damaging the economy every time it does so, is not a natural partner. Even the most civic-minded entrepreneur, keen to cycle his gains back into the economy that made those gains possible, will not be eager to work with a government hellbent on undermining stability. As a matter of structure, political choice and limited ability, the Scottish Government has created a climate unconducive to business and, worse, one that pushes business away.
Not all the structural flaws belong to the Scottish Government, though. I continue to plough the unfashionable but, I believe, correct furrow of devolution reform. The Holyrood settlement is a mess, was designed on the foolish assumption that Labour would be in power forever, and lacks sufficient safeguards against a devolved government misusing the institutions to undermine the sovereign integrity of the United Kingdom.
These faults are fundamental. There is no getting away from them. They are not, however, the full extent of the problem. It is easy for Unionists to remain in their comfort zone and bemoan the failings of the SNP or of devolution itself. A more testing question might be: why, after 15 years of unremitting failure, does the Scottish electorate want more of it? You can tell yourself SNP voters are fools, fanatics or brainwashed zombies and it will feel very comforting in the moment. It will do nothing, however, to change the minds of those voters.
When an electorate weighs a serially incompetent government against the opposition and chooses incompetence every time, there is something wrong with the opposition. Douglas Ross and Anas Sarwar both have their strong points but neither could be said to lead a party that scrutinises the Scottish Government in the way Sir Keir Starmer's Labour does the UK Government. Whatever you think of Nicola Sturgeon, she is a Premiership political operator while too many on the opposition benches would struggle to get in a five-a-side game.
But even as the opposition's weaknesses cannot be denied, the government's failings must be confronted. The SNP is adrift, on transport as on so much else, and lacks sufficient ballast to steady the ship.
Originally published in the Scottish Daily Mail on May 23, 2022.
Thank you yet again for such an articulate and pertinent assessment of the dreadful state of Scottish politics. The split vote against the SNP yet again mitigates against effective opposition. Were the 3 opposition parties to get together more often, as is happening in areas after the local elections, more effective challenges to the SNP would be possible. This may require some consumption of humble pie for the greater good!
Great bit of writing by Stephen once again shows how incompetent this government has become under Sturgeon and the utter disregard they have for the people of Scotland.