With 2021 at last in the rearview mirror, the time has come to face 2022 and brace ourselves for what it might bring.
For most, even modest improvements on the last 12 months would be welcome but the range and scale of the problems that lie ahead should caution us not to be too optimistic. Crystal-ball gazing is a fool's errand but, at risk of being shown hopelessly wrong a year from now, I have assembled some predictions of how 2022 is likely to pan out.
Are We There Yet?
We are closing in on two years of the Covid-19 pandemic and it's fair to say tempers are wearing thin. What began as a three-week national lockdown has extended to hitherto unthinkable restrictions on liberty during peacetime.
While no one serious doubts the necessity of controlling the virus, the impact on other aspects of physical health, and particularly on mental health, has been severe and will take years to repair.
The public is also three doses into a vaccination programme that was sold as the means of restoring lost freedoms. Even if there is a new, deadly variant this year, a return to lockdown could risk ripping away the already fraying public consent for such measures.
In the economic sphere, small businesses — and particularly retailers and the hospitality industry — have been pummelled into the ground by restrictions, ever-changing rules and definitions, a Scottish Government lacklustre at getting support cash out in time and the preference of a growing number of us to work and shop from home.
These firms are already right against the wall, with no more space left. If 2022 isn't the year that they can return to trading on workable terms, many may not return at all.
Sturgeon On The Spot Over Indyef2
The official line from Nicola Sturgeon is that there will be another referendum on independence by 2023.
That makes 2022 a signal year for the First Minister. She will have to start giving her grassroots something, even if it is just the illusion of progress being made. Perhaps she will plump for a constitutional convention or a consultative referendum or a new independence task force.
Whether such tricks can still work on the SNP rank and file is open to debate but Sturgeon has bigger problems. For one, polling shows the voters don't want another referendum anytime soon, and especially not during a pandemic or the recovery phase. Lean in too hard on agitating for indyref2 and she risks incurring the political cost.
For another, the constitution is reserved to Westminster and Boris Johnson not currently minded to allow a second vote. Pressing too hard against this door could reveal a fact that so many Nationalists are still in denial about: there is no path to Scottish independence without the permission of the UK Government.
Will He Stay or Will He BoJo?
It was only a little over two years ago that Boris Johnson pulled off a thwocking great victory at the polls, amassing the biggest Tory majority since Margaret Thatcher and burying Jeremy Corbyn's Labour. How different things look today.
The Prime Minister has been dogged by a series of scandals, the most damaging of which have been the return of Tory sleaze and revelations about Downing Street parties while the country was on lockdown.
Despite his majority, Johnson is bedevilled by rebellious backbenchers some of whom have never liked him and others who have been sent jittery by the polls. Those polls show Labour in the lead.
This has caused speculation about the Prime Minister's future and whether he might be escorted out of Number 10 by the Tory Party's notorious Men in Grey Suits. They did it to Maggie and they could do it to him.
Johnson's problem is that few people owe him loyalty, not least because it's a quality he has rarely shown himself. His tenure at the top of the Conservative Party hinges solely on his ability to win the next election. This is the year he will have to convince his MPs that he can.
All Politics is Local
The UK goes to the polls on May 5 to elect councillors in England, Wales and Scotland, while voters in Northern Ireland will elect a new assembly.
North of the Border, it’s tests all round. Will Nicola Sturgeon’s party, the winner last time, lose ground — or even gain it? Will Douglas Ross manage to hold onto the seats won by Ruth Davidson in 2017? Although his leadership is under no pressure, recovering ground among Labour voters who went Tory five years ago would bolster Anas Sarwar’s project to reclaim second place from the Conservatives.
Electors in Glasgow will get a chance to cast their judgement on the hapless reign of Susan Aitken, the first SNP leader of the city council. High levels of support for the national party in Glasgow might stave off a reckoning but Labour will be disappointed if it doesn’t make at least some gains here.
Elsewhere, voters in England will get a chance to give Boris Johnson a bloody nose and, if the polls are anything to go by, the Prime Minister should keep an ice pack handy. Still, that’s as nothing compared to the political and constitutional headache that awaits in Belfast if, as is predicted, Sinn Fein captures the first ministership at Stormont.
The Coming Cost-of-Living Crisis
A perfect storm of political and economic factors is likely to stir up a cost-of-living crisis in 2022. Mortgage-payers will soon absorb last month's interest rate rise and financial commentators warn further intervention from the Bank of England cannot be ruled out.
Inflation has already had a sobering impact on household bills and shows no sign of letting up any time soon. Energy bills are digging deeper into householders' pockets than usual and a stand-off between Western Europe and Russia will only worsen matters.
The proposed SNP-Green budget will slash funding for councils while giving them free rein to hike the rates, raising the prospect of punishing increases in council tax. Another cost imposed by the Scottish Government is the new legal requirement that every homeowner instal interlinked fire alarms.
With a deadline of February and the cost for an average family home estimated to exceed £200, it will be a nasty New Year surprise for many who have still to hear about the rule change.
The next 12 months could be among the most financially gruelling for ordinary families in years.
The Russian Bear Will Growl Louder
The political challenges of 2022 will not be limited to the home front. The threat from Russia grows more serious by the day with the Kremlin ramping up its anti-Western rhetoric to a level not heard since the height of the Cold War. The flashpoint is Ukraine, which Russia invaded in 2014, capturing and annexing the Crimea.
This and other acts of aggression from Vladimir Putin have prompted other Eastern European countries to look to Nato as a potential protector, with Putin claiming in turn that the Western alliance is encroaching on Russia's territorial sphere.
The idea of open conflict between Nato and Moscow is still unthinkable but no longer wholly unimaginable. Even if things don't escalate to that level, the situation will nonetheless deteriorate in 2022. Russia prizes its projection of power and its economic interests and will ruthlessly pursue both. The West's ability to stand up to this threat depends on many factors, not least this: one-third of all gas used in Europe comes from Russia.
Big Test for Biden
November will bring the midterm elections in the United States, with most members of Congress and state governors up for re-election. However, midterms are typically seen as one giant opinion poll on the man in the Oval Office and a slate of bad results in House and Senate races usually augurs badly for a party's chances in the next presidential contest.
Almost one year into his presidency, Joe Biden's approval rating has fallen to 43 per cent, spelling trouble for November's races. He has so far failed to pass his $1.7 trillion Build Back Better economic recovery plan and Americans are growing frustrated by rising crime and rising prices and unimpressed with the Democrats' fixation on race and gender culture wars.
If Biden's party suffers a major setback when voters go to the polls on November 8, it could leave him too weakened to pass his domestic agenda and distracted by Washington politics at a dangerous time when the world needs a strong US President more than ever.
Originally published in the Scottish Daily Mail on January 3, 2022.
Good evaluation of the current situation Stephen. Can I ask you to put your brain to considering life in Scotland with a party of made up of economic business brains , mixture of religious leaders ( kindness and compassion) No minorities, just men and women, no educationalists, plenty artisans who make things that sell to bring cash into this kind of utopia
Doctors back to private, health service that gives basic human needs, Trade unions banned .Create a positive Scottish National Anthem instead of current dirge. Etc etc. When you've got time, no rush as current prison sentence in Zenda has no let out date just a death sentence not a life sentence
Jonty or Jaunty