Just one more thing…

Politics Notebook #9: Some final thoughts from 2023.

With 2024 fast approaching this year’s hours are numbered.

So little time left to make points, settle scores and put on record everything that was wrong about the past 12 months. (New Year’s Eve is my Festivus.)

Thus, in the style of Lt. Columbo, I say ‘Just one more thing…’ to 2023.

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Another wasted year, another to come

This is a time for reflecting on the year fading into the past and making plans for the new one on the way.

Looking back on the year in Scottish politics, there is plenty to talk about: from Nicola Sturgeon’s sudden resignation to the acrimonious leadership election that (narrowly) brought Humza Yousaf to power; from dramatic developments in the police investigation into SNP finances to the departure of veteran MP Angus MacNeil and the defection to the Tories of Lisa Cameron; from the epidemic of disappearing WhatsApp messages to the Michael Matheson iPad scandal.

Who, this time last year, could have predicted that the humble camper van would take on such political significance in 2023?

These are mostly political concerns. Those are important, capturing the interest of those inside the Holyrood bubble, and occasionally those outside it. But what about the day-to-day business of government? Policies, plans, legislation, objectives and outcomes? Such matters sometimes get overlooked. They’re not sexy. They tend not to involve gossip or rumours or other forms of politics-as-entertainment.

But they are pretty important. They are, after all, what politics is supposed to be about: the affairs of state, the business of the people, and the running of the country. Look back over 2023 and there is plenty to talk about here, too, but none of it could be mistaken for entertainment. It has been another thoroughly discouraging year for good government and effective policy.

Let’s consider three areas: education, health and infrastructure.

Education

• The PISA study delivered a triple blow to the reputation of Scottish education. Scotland’s reading score was down 11 points on 2018, science was down 14 on 2015, and mathematics down 20 on 2015.

• Scotland received a significantly lower rank than England in maths and science and a marginally lower rank in reading.

• PISA showed only ten OECD countries performing significantly worse than Scotland in science and only eight in maths.

• Despite the SNP pledging to increase teacher numbers by 3,500 in this parliamentary session (i.e. by spring 2026), teacher numbers fell for the second year in a row.

• The last ten years has seen the number of pupils with additional support needs (ASN) more than double while the number of ASN teachers has plummeted by more than 500.

• The school attendance rate continues to fall, down from 93.7% in 2015 to 90.2% this year.

• After a decade of driving down school exclusions, the number shot up by more than 3,000 last year, taking the overall figure to 11,676.

• Violence and vandalism continue to be a problem: 36% of Scottish school pupils have witnessed a fight in which a pupil was hurt, 36% have heard a pupil threaten to hurt another pupil, and 40% report vandalism of their school.

• Two-thirds of teachers report encountering verbal abuse and 59% physical aggression.

• The National Digital Academy, promised in the SNP’s 2021 election manifesto, is still at ‘development’ stage, with only four civil servants working on it and not a single penny yet spent.

Health

• There are more than 5,000 nursing and midwifery posts vacant in Scotland and more than 400 doctor and dentist vacancies. New research from the British Medical Association found that, while the number of patients registered with a GP in Scotland rose by 245,000 over the past ten years, the number of GP surgeries fell by 92 over the same period.

• The Accident and Emergency target states that 95% of patients should be treated within four hours of arriving at A&E. That standard is only being met for 68% of patients. The first six months of 2023 saw 4,000 patients waiting 24 hours or longer in A&E, a figure 250 times higher than that for 2019.

• The Scottish Government’s national standard says that 95% of new outpatients must be seen within 12 weeks of referral. The latest figures show this target is only being met for 63% of patients.

• The treatment time guarantee says that no patients should wait longer than 12 weeks for in-patient or day-case treatment. That target is only being met for 56% of patients.

• The 62-day cancer standard says that 95% of patients should wait no longer than 62 days from an urgent referral to beginning their cancer treatment. That is only happening for 72% of patients. This target has not been met in a single quarter of a single year since 2012.

• The Scottish Government says that 90% of adult patients should begin receiving treatment within 18 weeks of being referred to psychological therapies. This is only happening in the case of 79% of patients.

• The CAMHS target says that 90% of child and adolescent patients must start treatment within 18 weeks of a mental health referral. Only 76% are being seen within this timeframe.

• The Referral-to-Treatment standard states that 90% of patients must be seen within 18 weeks of referral. Currently, only 69% of patients are receiving treatment within that time period.

• Diagnostic waiting targets declare that no patients should wait longer than six weeks for four key endoscopy tests (upper endoscopy, colonoscopy, lower endoscopy, cystoscopy) and four key radiology tests (CT, MRI, barium, non-obstetric ultrasound). In reality, 60% of patients are waiting longer than six weeks for endoscopy tests and 47% waiting longer for radiology exams.

• Scottish hospitals are running out of bed linen for emergency departments.

Infrastructure

• MV Glen Sannox and MV Glen Rosa, the two ferries commissioned from Ferguson Marine and due in 2018, have still not been delivered. The Scottish Parliament’s public audit committee is calling for a forensic audit to find out what became of £128.25m in Scottish Government payments and loans to the shipyard.

• Dualling of the A9, promised in the 2011 SNP manifesto and due to be completed by 2025, has been delayed for another ten years.

• HMP Glasgow, the intended replacement prison for the dangerously overcrowded HMP Barlinnie, was scheduled to open in November 2026 at a cost of £400m. The project is now expected to exceed both its deadline and price tag.

• The Scottish Government will not be able to meet its promise of investing £26bn in infrastructure, with projects including the decarbonisation of the Borders railway and the construction of HMP Highland delayed.

• Reviewing the SNP’s plans for inclusive growth, transition to Net Zero, and constructing resilient and sustainable buildings, the Auditor General for Scotland says ‘it is not always clear how the Scottish Government is directing funding to these three infrastructure investment priorities, or how they will contribute to reducing greenhouse gases’.

• Finance Secretary Shona Robison’s Christmas Budget proposes to cut almost £200m from house-building, which the Scottish Federation of Housing Associations calls ‘a hammer-blow for delivering affordable housing and tackling poverty and homelessness in Scotland’.

This doesn’t even include the implosion of the Deposit Return Scheme, the Court of Session defeat over Section 35 and the Gender Recognition Reform Bill, or yet another delay to the pledge to supply children with laptops or other digital devices.

Twenty-five years. That’s how long devolution will have been going next year. And seventeen of them have been taken up with this kind of relentless mediocrity.

If I sound angry, it’s because I am. Lately, I’ve been trying to be less angry, to not let myself get as frustrated by politics, to be chill about the mounting leviathans of policy failure. (You can tell I’m trying to be more zen because I split an infinitive in that last sentence and I’m totally not having a breakdown at the thought of it right now.) But some things merit anger and the squandering of the opportunity to make life better for people is one of them.

At risk of spoiling the ending — and dismaying you even more — things aren’t going to get much better in 2024. I haven’t glimpsed into a crystal ball; it’s just that next year will almost certainly be an election year, and nothing gets done in election years. The focus for the SNP, as for all the other parties, will be on cobbling together a united front and painting a pretty picture for the voters.

The problems that bedevil Scotland, particularly when it comes to schools and the health service, are systemic and chronic. They will only be resolved by reform, and pretty radical reform at that. Radical reform — radical anything — scares the voters and threatens to prompt dissent within the ranks. The SNP is no sooner going to risk education or health reforms than the Tories are immigration or planning overhauls.

The last twelve months represented another wasted year in Scottish public policy. The next twelve will represent much the same.

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To Sir with love

I’m not a great enthusiast of the honours system but of all the criticisms levelled against it the most inane is that the awarding of such baubles is outdated. This criticism is sometimes made by people sore that they’ve been overlooked yet again but it’s a mistake to chalk up all complaints to jealousy.

There is a definite point of view out there, typically articulated by educated and proudly rational minds, and it holds that Knighthoods and Damehoods and the rest are inherently silly. Out of step with modern attitudes. Not a good look.

This is the sort of intellectual shallowness only an expensive education can produce. By all means, rail against honours as base political patronage or a symbol of democratically offensive monarchism or a laundering of the Empire into socially worthy causes. But spare me the fashionable blah-blahing.

You find honours issued under the auspices of a monarch embarrassing? At odds with the intellectual zeitgeist? Unbecoming of a modern European nation? Goodness, we hadn’t considered that. Please accept our apologies. The system dates back to Edward III but if it’s problematic in 2023, we’ll have to scrap it. Centuries of tradition are one thing but the discomfiture of humanities and social science graduates outweighs such foolish old customs.

We shall begin in earnest devising new civic awards more in keeping with informed opinion. By this time next year, President Rory Stewart will be ready to issue the Order of the FBPE, the Companion of the Ocado Smart Pass and the League of News Agents Listeners.

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Dispense with the pretence

Research by Scotland in Union (SiU) shows that the SNP government has spent almost £3.5m on independence since the 2021 election. SiU has a petition on the go, urging the Scottish Government to ‘end the spend’. I make no criticism of SiU or its petition; their efforts are well-intentioned.

I do, however, make criticisms of the Scottish Conservatives, who are never done banging on about the SNP spending taxpayers’ money promoting separation. Oh, it makes them so mad! Stamping their feet in frustration, they are.

Of course, this is the same Scottish Conservatives whose party is in power at Westminster and has been since 2010. If you want Humza Yousaf and his government to stop directing public resources to separation, you don’t need a petition to Bute House, you need to address your correspondence to 10 Downing Street.

There is one reason and one reason alone why the SNP government continues to splash the cash on independence: the UK Government allows it. Downing Street could put a stop to this spending with the stroke of a pen. It could legislate an amendment to the civil service code, prohibiting Scottish Government civil servants from carrying out activities relating to independence. It could amend the Scotland Act to say: ‘Scottish Ministers may not expend public resources on matters related to independence.’ It could even deduct from the block grant an amount equivalent to the annual sum spent by the Scottish Government on independence.

Instead of doing any of these things, the Tories fob off pro-Union voters in Scotland with stern-sounding letters from David Cameron and pantomime Nat-bashing at the dispatch box from Penny Mordaunt. Both are good fun but intended to distract you from the fact that this government would rather complain about the SNP overstepping the bounds of devolution than do anything about it.

The reason for their inaction? The SNP’s independence spending, like its forays into foreign affairs, gets core Unionist voters riled up. So riled up, the Tories hope, that these voters will vote for them, the party making the most noise about these issues. This racket has served them well so far, but it can only go on working if Unionist voters don’t catch on to the ruse.

It’s time they did, and told the Tories to end the spend — or dispense with the pretence that they give a damn about the constitutional integrity of the UK.

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You are all devil-worshippers (sort of)

At this time of year, I take it upon myself to remind everyone of this item from the Scotch Presbyterian Eloquence, a 1692 tome documenting Church of Scotland teachings and preachings out-of-step with today’s more modern, progressive, inclusive Kirk:

It is ordinary among some plebeians in the South of Scotland to go about from door to door upon New Year’s Eve, crying Hagmane, a corrupted word from the Greek αγια μηνη, which signifies the holy month. John Dickson holding forth against this custom once in a sermon at Kelso, says, Sirs, do you know what Hagmane signifies? It is the Devil be in the house, that’s the meaning of its Hebrew original.

I’m sure that’s just superstition. On the other hand, you might want to check any first-footers are sticking feet and not cloven hooves in the door.

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In memoriam

On a more sombre note, 2023 saw the passing of a number of prominent politicians. I would like to mention four in particular:

Glenda Jackson
Actress and Labour MP

Star of Women in Love (Ken Russell, 1969) and Sunday Bloody Sunday (John Schlesinger, 1971), Glenda Jackson entered politics in 1992 and served as MP for Hampstead and Highgate (later Kilburn) until 2015. As an actress, she achieved the famed ‘triple crown’: winning a Tony, an Oscar (two, actually) and an Emmy (three, in fact). In 75 years, only two dozen performers have managed that trifecta. Jackson continued working until her final year.

I reviewed her last film, The Great Escaper, in October.

Winnie Ewing
Nationalist pioneer

‘Stop the world,’ Winnie Ewing proclaimed, ‘Scotland wants to get on.’ It was a Nationalist cri de coeur that captured her wit and political ambition. Ewing could have rested on her laurels after winning the historic Hamilton by-election in 1967, or unseating Scottish Secretary Gordon Campbell in 1974, or serving twenty years in the European Parliament. But she was a political dynamo of boundless energy, which she poured not only into the Scottish nationalist cause but her support for Israel and for the oppressed Jews of the Soviet Union. Perhaps the crowning achievement of her public service was opening the very first session of the new Scottish Parliament, when, with a certain impish romanticism, she declared: ‘The Scottish Parliament, which adjourned on 25 March 1707, is hereby reconvened.’

I wrote about Ewing and her legacy in June.

Ann Clwyd 
Labour MP and humanitarian campaigner

Ann Clwyd spent forty years as an elected member, five as an MEP for Mid and West Wales and thirty-five as an MP for Cynon Valley. She never held ministerial office but was one of the most prominent Commons members thanks, initially, to a rebellious streak and, later, for her campaigning for Iraqi victims of Saddam Hussein and for overthrowing Hussein’s regime on human rights grounds. She also passed a private member’s bill making it a crime for British parents to take their daughters abroad to undergo female genital mutilation. In her final years in Parliament, Clwyd became an advocate for patients who had suffered poor treatment at the hands of the NHS, spurred on by the experiences of her husband, Owen, who predeceased her by eleven years.

I wrote about Clwyd and her public service in July.

Alistair Darling
Chancellor of the Exchequer, 2007-10

Alistair Darling made many contributions to British public life and two to British history. As Chancellor when the global financial crisis hit, he poured the Treasury’s resources into propping up the British banking sector, saving millions of mortgages and jobs. Had he failed, Britain would likely have seen the worst economic and social catastrophe since the 1930s. Later, as head of the Better Together campaign, he won the referendum on Scottish secession, ensuring the United Kingdom lived to fight another day. He was a modest man who never sought credit for these achievements and was more interested in doing good than in being seen as great. He was good and great.

I wrote this tribute to him for the Spectator.

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Happy New Year

If you’ve made it this far, God bless you. As my granny used to say: ‘You’ll get your reward in the next life; Lord knows you’ll get nowt in this one.’

I would like to wish you and yours a happy new year. I hope 2024 is less like 2023 and more like whatever the last non-crazy year was. (Nineteen ninety-something?)

Also, fun fact: the world’s largest New Year’s Eve celebrations, in New York’s Times Square, will include the dropping of 3,000lb of confetti (see video above). Wouldn’t want to be on sweeping up duty after that.

Anyway, wherever you find yourself this evening, whatever you get up to, however much single malt and shortbread you put away, all the best when it comes.

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