Hunt’s tax blunts Ross’s attacks
Politics Notebook #16: The Chancellor’s oil and gas levy will undermine the Scottish Tories’ election strategy.
First Minister’s Questions this week underscored the damage done to Douglas Ross by the Chancellor’s decision to extend his windfall tax on oil and gas profits.
Time and again, Humza Yousaf used Jeremy Hunt’s Budget announcement to taunt the Scottish Conservative leader.
There was this:
Douglas Ross really needs to use whatever influence he has — of course, we know that he does not have much — to make sure that the Conservatives fund public services and do not slash them to the bone.
And this:
Douglas Ross, having clearly been left hung out to dry by his colleagues, is desperate to simply make up what has been said or not said.
And this:
I am not sure why Douglas Ross is so rattled in this session of First Minister’s question time. He mentioned The Press and Journal — a great paper that I read regularly — so it might be something to do with that.
(A headline from yesterday’s Press and Journal: ‘Red-faced Tory leader Douglas Ross hung out to dry as windfall tax extension announced’.)
Expect to hear more patter like this the closer we get to the general election. Jeremy Hunt has tossed Humza Yousaf and his North East MPs a lifeline and you had better believe they are going to cling to it for dear life.
Douglas Ross had lobbied for the oil and gas levy to come to an end. In recent months, he has emphasised his party’s backing for North Sea jobs and sought to frame the SNP and Labour as willing to sacrifice energy workers on the altar of Net Zero.
This he has done not out of the goodness of his heart but because he knows how to read opinion polls. A January poll of 1,029 Scots aged 16 and over, conducted by Survation on behalf of the consultancy True North, found that:
60% believe North Sea energy companies have a positive impact on the UK economy; only 11% consider their impact to be negative
75% say Britain should meet its oil and gas needs from domestic production; only 9% support imports from overseas
58% backed Rishi Sunak’s decision to issue new oil and gas licences; 21% opposed it
That’s why the Conservatives’ general election strategy is to focus on the North East, where they hope to retain incumbencies despite an expected national swing against the party and maybe even pick up one or two seats currently held by the SNP. The party had hoped to do this by appealing not only to floating voters but to Nationalists scunnered by the SNP’s coalition with the anti-production Scottish Greens.
Ross had been making a decent fist of this effort, pivoting away from constant anti-independence rhetoric to make it easier for soft-SNP electors to ‘cross the floor’ come polling day. Whether this would have worked is another matter, but trying to link the Scottish Tories and North Sea jobs in the minds of the electorate was a wise strategy.
In keeping the windfall levy in place, Jeremy Hunt has undermined that strategy, perhaps fatally. He has sent the message that the Conservatives are no more a party for North Sea workers than the SNP or Labour. He has demonstrated that there’s not much point in switching your SNP MP for a Tory one: neither will be able to get a hearing in Number 11 for the North East’s priorities.
Ross has expressed his dismay at the Chancellor’s decision and said he will not vote for separate legislation that will be required to extend the oil and gas tax. He will, however, vote for the Budget itself. I understand that he thinks there are a number of positive measures in Jeremy Hunt’s spending plans and he doesn’t want to vote against them.
This is reasonable-sounding but to voters in the North East I fear it will come across as a distinction without a difference. Try explaining to a tired shift worker on the doorstep that, Yes, the Tory government has extended its windfall tax on oil and gas, but the Scottish Tories support the industry, but their leader voted for the Budget containing that tax, but he voted against legislation to implement it. I just wrote that sentence and I can’t get my head around it.
Not only that but voting for the Budget then against the enabling legislation for the tax will open Ross to accusations of flip-flopping. I see no way around this one. Either Douglas Ross keeps his election strategy and votes against the Budget or he votes for the Budget and loses his election strategy.
It feels like the Conservatives are determined to lose the general election. You would think that if they already expect to lose, they would implement some proper conservative policies - unpopular but sensible policies like abandoning net zero nonsense, repealing EU regulations and planning rules that prevent house building etc - but instead they just press on with their 'Labour lite' approach. Why do they refuse to do anything that would actually change the country for the better? What are they afraid of?