Gordon Brown isn’t always wrong

Politics Notebook #17: The Union is in trouble, however much some of its partisans would rather pretend otherwise.

Speaking to the Financial Times, Gordon Brown pronounces:

In the long run, the forces pulling Britain apart are greater than the forces holding it together, unless something is done about it.

The man’s self-awareness shield is more impenetrable than the Iron Dome. At this stage, whenever he pops up to warn that the British constitution is under grave threat, the correct response is not another thousand words on his part in that threat. The correct response is donning a hot dog costume and yelling: ‘We’re all trying to find the guy who did this.’

Even so, I’m struck by the denials with which his comments have been met in some quarters. Unionists seem not merely to dispute his interpretation but to be shocked that anyone would say such a thing, as though it was outlandish or easily debunked. In fact, Brown’s analysis is entirely uncontroversial.

The forces pulling Britain apart are greater than the forces holding it together, and if Brown’s FT interview was the first time you encountered this assessment, then buckle up, baby, ‘cause we’re not taking the scenic route here.

An error that some Unionists make is not reading polls past their headline voting intentions. Take the most recent poll to ask the independence question, Panelbase for the Sunday Times. The headline result: No 53%, Yes 47%. That might look encouraging for the Union, and it would be — if another referendum were being held tomorrow or next month or next year.

But it is unlikely that another referendum will be held in the near future. That means we need to study not only the headline numbers, which provide a snapshot of where public opinion stands today, but also the breakdown by age, which offers hints as to where public opinion might stand in the future.

And the age breakdown says what it always says: support for the Union is concentrated among older voters. Among the young, independence is the way forward.

Men aged between 16 and 34 back separation by almost two to one. Among women in the same age bracket, it’s a narrower but still commanding 58 to 42%. Those aged 35 to 54 are split down the middle. You have to cross into the over-55 column before you start to see majorities for No.

This is the demographic time bomb ticking away underneath the constitutional status quo. Unionists are only getting older and the strength of their opposition to independence is not replicated in younger cohorts.

This has not come out of the blue. The warning signs have been there for years, not least in changing national identities. While 65% of over-65s describe themselves as some combination of Scottish and British, that figure falls to 40% among those aged 16-24. Forty eight per cent of young Scottish adults explicitly call themselves ‘Scottish, not British’.

This reflects a variety of societal and cultural trends. It is probably not a coincidence that these are the first Scottish voters to have been born after the creation of the Scottish Parliament. They have no memory of a time when there was a single Parliament at Westminster where laws and policies pertaining to Scotland were made. They are devolution natives. Westminster has never been their Parliament and likely never will be.

There are other forces portending division. The politics of national identity (borders, migration, and demography) are becoming more prominent on the right in England, and not only the right. England’s population dominance and the concentration of the news media in London mean these changes will loom large in UK-wide politics. Simply put, Scots are only going to become more aware of the differences between Scottish and English identity politics. The sharper that contrast becomes, the more difficult it will be to project an idea of Britishness that unites people across the UK.

This is before we consider factors like public finances, the sustainability of Scotland’s funding advantage over England, the impact of population change, and how digital technology is redrawing borders.

The challenges to the Union are more formidable than they were a decade ago, when 55% of Scots rejected independence. They are not insurmountable but they will not be overcome by chasing after the voters with graphs and charts and asking for a moment of their time to discuss the latest OBR forecasts. Voters are not calculators. If all you give them is data to process, while the other side is giving them an inspiring story about the future, which side do you suppose will win?

Many Unionists prefer not to have this conversation for all sorts of reasons. Some are genuinely unaware of the rapid greying of the No vote. They live in political and social silos where most people they come into contact with think as they do. This epistemic closure clouds their ability to see the other side of the argument. Others approach politics as a form of entertainment. They’re in it for a spot of outrage and a chuckle at the Nats every now and then. They don’t want to hear about polls or demographics or trends. Leave such things to the anoraks.

There is no law that says anyone has to take an interest in politics. Trust me, you’re better off avoiding it altogether. But if you’re reading this, I’m guessing you do take an interest and that you’d rather confront the facts as they are than soothe yourself with reassuring myths.

So, yes, Gordon Brown is right. The forces of separatism are growing stronger and those of unity diminishing by the day. It doesn’t have to be that way but it will continue to be until Unionists put half as much time, effort, intellect and zeal into strengthening the UK as the Nationalists put into ripping it apart.